Volume 11, 2022
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Risk Factors in the German Stock Market: Can Sentiment Improve the Performance of Traditional Multifactor Models?
Emile David Hövel 1, Matthias Gehrke 2
1 Universidad Católica San Antonio de Murcia, Spain
2 FOM University of Applied Sciences, Germany
Capital market research usually focuses on the investment decision of a risk-averse investor, who determines the relationship between risky assets and risk-free investment. Furthermore, numerous capital market models assume normally distributed security returns and rational investors. In this framework, ex-ante investment decisions depend solely on the expected return, risk of investment opportunities, and investor risk affinity. For decades, empirical research findings have criticized this idealized framework. New risk factors were empirically confirmed and established. This study attempts to shed light on this issue. A comparative analysis considers the Fama-French and Carhart factors and a principal component analysis based sentiment-risk factor considering 76 sentiment indicators to examine the possible explanatory contribution to German stock market returns.
Keywords: Stock Market Returns, Risk Management, Behavioral Finance, Investor Sentiment, Germany
Reconstruction of the Slippery Slope Framework Tax Compliance Model
I Nyoman Darmayasa*, I Made Marsa Arsana, I Made Agus Putrayasa
Politeknik Negeri Bali
This study attempts to reconstruct the Slippery Slope Framework (SSF) tax compliance model based on the values of Pancasila as the nation's ideology. This study is a conceptual paper through a literature review. The conceptual based on internalization of the value of Pancasila through historicity, rationality, and actuality. Historically, the SSF compliance model has not fully agreed with the values of Pancasila, which reflects the characteristics of taxpayers in Indonesia. Rationally, the SSF compliance model prioritizes the objective role of tax authorities in their primary task of collecting tax revenues. The reconstruction of the model through the actuality of the nation's ideological value occurs by balancing the role of the tax authority’s power with the taxpayers’ trust. The reconstruction propositions of the obedience model are based on humanist religious values at the conceptual level. The reconstruction of the SSF compliance model makes the humanist religious assumption the foundation of the tax authority's power as taxpayers’ trust increases. The reconstruction model is believed to be able to dynamically transform an antagonistic into a synergistic climate to increase voluntary compliance.
Keywords: Conceptual paper, Nation's ideological value, Reconstruction, Slippery slope framework, Tax compliance
The Impact of Real Manipulation and Tax Management on Future Market Value: An Artificial Intelligence Simulation of High Earnings Quality
Muljanto Siladjaja 1, Yuli Anwar 2, Ismulyana Djan 2
1 IKPIA Perbanas
2 Universitas Binaniaga Indonesia
Providing empirical proof of the negative impact of manipulation activity pushed management to adhere to the available regulation by publishing high financial reporting quality. This one has a significant effect negatively on a volatile market price movement because of illustrates the actual earnings. It is not an obstacle for the investor in predicting the future return with high accuracy when there is a minimum chance for the opportunity behavior. This causal research has developed a new variable to measure the investor's perception, and it is the future market value as a proxy for future return. The observation data used the samples on the listed company in the industrial manufacturing sector from 2015 until 2020, which amounted to 384 observations. The management's effort to deduct the manipulation activity can be interpreted as the minimum level of misleading information. When the investor has no tolerance for manipulation activity, the management should be "prudent" in designing the accounting treatment policy to illustrate real earnings. It is a sign of high probability in reaching out to the better prospect, proving the interactive feedback between management and investor through the Decision Tree Model and Bayes Theorem. This research has adopted the maximum simplex models as an Artificial Intelligence simulation for maximizing each party's maximum utility as implication game theory, like investors and management in making their strategic decisions. Principally, the regulator should force management to level up the quality of financial reporting because of no tolerance for any infringement on the legal regulations.
Keywords: Real earnings quality, Tax management, Future market value
Does transaction atmosphere influence the decision-making behaviour of investors?
Christa Hangl*, Matthias Ortner
University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria
The profitability of impact investments ranges from a return on investment to market returns. To accomplish social goals, certain investors forgo part of the financial return. This approach opposes the concepts of conventional finance theory, which see the individual as a rational profit-maximizing decision-maker. A quantitative experimental study was conducted with students from the Upper Austria University of Applied Sciences, Steyr Campus, whereby the subjects were divided into two groups. A social Transaction Atmosphere (TA) was created in one group through the targeted use of stimuli. Subsequently, both groups had to make an investment decision in an identical scenario. The aim of the study and point of intersection between transaction cost theory and the social finance (SF)/impact investing (II) area is to analyse the observable "irrationality" in SF/II with reference to the transaction atmosphere as the primary decision-making element. The underlying scientific question investigates the impact of a socially shaped TA on the decision-making of investors. Experiment results demonstrated that the use of stimuli significantly raised the proportion of impact investments to overall investments. This finding suggests that a socially moulded TA is essential for investors' decision-making, whereby receptivity to the stimuli depends on individual investor characteristics, such as moral standard, financial knowledge, and previous experience with investment decisions. The financial aspect continues to play an important role in the decision- making process of investors.
Keywords: Social finance, Social impact investing, Transaction cost theory, Transaction atmosphere
A comparison of market risk measures from a twofold perspective: accurate and loss function
Sonia Benito Muela*, Carmen López-Martin, Raquel Arguedas-Sanz
National Distance Education University (UNED)
Under the new regulation based on Basel solvency framework, known as Basel III and Basel IV, financial institutions must calculate the market risk capital requirements based on the Expected Shortfall (ES) measure, replacing the Value at Risk (VaR) measure. In the financial literature, there are many papers dedicated to compare VaR approaches but there are few studies focusing in comparing ES approaches. To cover this gap, we have carried out a comprenhensive comparative of VaR and ES models applied to IBEX-35 stock index. The comparison has been carried out from a twofold perspective: accurate risk measure and loss functions. The results indicate that the method based on the conditional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is the best in estimating market risk, outperforming Parametric method and Filter Historical Simulation.
Keywords: Expected shortfall, Value at Risk, APARCH model, Backtesting, Skewed distributions
The role of forensic auditing techniques in preventing non-government organisations’ financial statement fraud in South Africa using a proactive approach
Jean Damascene Mvunabandi *1, Bomi Nomlala 2
1 Durban University of Technology
2 University of KwaZulu-Natal
This study is designed to investigate the role of proactive forensic auditing techniques in preventing fraudulent activities among NGOs in the eThekwini region. The population of this study comprised 87 knowledgeable staff in the field of fraud risk management and auditing selected from 30 NGOs. Primary data was gathered using an online questionnaire and semi-structured interviews. Quantitative data were analysed with the aid of SPSS version 27, while NVivo12 assisted in thematically analysing all interview questions. Analysis of movement Structures (AMOS version 27) was also used to estimate statistical models. Empirical findings proved that a proactive approach to forensic auditing techniques could hugely assist in preventing fraudulent activities among non-government organisations in the eThekwini region, South Africa. Relying on these empirical findings, this study proposes a model for proactively preventing financial and economic crimes in NGOs. This study contributes to the current body of knowledge and further contributes to fraud risk management in NGOs. This study has also provided a very robust plan for future researchers.
Keywords: Fraud risk management, Proactive forensic auditing techniques, Financial statement fraud, Non-Government Organisations, Financial statement fraud prevention