ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives
Vol. 8 ISSN 2305-7394
Volume 8 / Ongoing Publication
Economic and Financial Transactions Govern Business Cycles
TVEL, Moscow, Russia
Problem/Relevance - This paper presents new description of the business cycles that for decades remain as relevant and important economic problem.
Research Objective/Questions - We propose that econometrics can provide sufficient data for assessments of risk ratings for almost all economic agents. We use risk ratings as coordinates of agents and show that the business cycles are consequences of collective change of risk coordinates of agents and their financial variables.
Methodology - We aggregate similar financial variables of agents and define macro variables as functions on economic space. Economic and financial transactions between agents are the only tools that change their extensive variables. We aggregate similar transactions between agents with risk coordinates x and y and define macro transactions as functions of x and y. We derive economic equations that describe evolution of macro transactions and hence describe evolution of macro variables.
Major Findings - As example we study simple model that describes interactions between Credits transactions from Creditors at x to Borrowers at y and Loan-Repayment transactions that describe refunds from Borrowers at y to Creditors at x. We show that collective motions of Creditors and Borrowers from safer to risky area and back on economic space induce frequencies of macroeconomic Credit cycles.
Implications – Our model can improve forecasting of the business cycles and help increase economic sustainability and financial policy-making. That requires development of risk ratings methodologies and corporate accounting procedures that should correspond each other to enable risk assessments of economic agents.
Keywords: business cycle, economic transactions, risk assessment, economic space
RAHUL ROY1, SANTHAKUMAR SHIJIN2
1,2 Pondicherry University, India
Problem/Relevance: Measuring the risk of an asset and the economic forces driving the price of the risk is a challenging task that preoccupied the asset pricing literature for decades. However, there exists no consensus on the integrated asset pricing framework among the financial economists in the contemporaneous asset pricing literature. Thus, we consider and study this research problem that has greater relevance in pricing the risks of an asset. In this backdrop, we develop an integrated equilibrium asset pricing model in an intertemporal (ICAPM) framework.
Research Objective/Questions: Broadly we have two research objectives. First, we examine the joint dynamics of the human capital component and common factors in approximating the variation in asset return predictability. Second, we test whether the human capital component is the unaccounted and the sixth pricing factor of FF five-factor asset pricing model. Additionally, we assess the economic and statistical significance of the equilibrium six-factor asset pricing model.
Methodology: The human capital component, market portfolio, size, value, profitability, and investment are the pricing factors of the equilibrium six-factor asset pricing model. We use Fama-French (FF) portfolios of 2 3, 5 5, 10 10 sorts, 2 4 4 sorts, and the Industry portfolios to examine the equilibrium six-factor asset pricing model. The Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation is used to estimate the parameters of variant asset pricing models and Gibbons-Ross-Shanken test is employed to evaluate the performance of the variant asset pricing frameworks.
Major Findings: Our approaches led to three conclusions. First, the GMM estimation result infers that the human capital component of the six-factor asset pricing model significantly priced the variation in excess return on FF portfolios of variant sorts and the Industry portfolios. Further, the sensitivity to human capital component priced separately in the presence of the market portfolios and the common factors. Second, the six-factor asset pricing model outperforms the CAPM, FF three-factor model, and FF five-factor model, which indicates that the human capital component is a significant pricing factor in asset return predictability. Third, we argue that the human capital component is the unaccounted asset pricing factor and equally the sixth-factor of the FF five-factor asset pricing model. The additional robustness test result confirms that the parameter estimation of the six-factor asset pricing model is robust to the alternative definitions of the human capital component.
Implications: The empirical results and findings equally pose the more significant effects for the decision-making process of the rational investor, institutional managers, portfolio managers, and fund managers in formulating the better investment strategies, which can help in diversifying the aggregate risks.
Keywords: Asset pricing; FF five-factor model; human capital; return predictability; six-factor asset pricing model; sixth factor.
Francisca M. Beer1, Frank Lin2
1,2 California State University, San Bernardino, USA
Problem/Relevance: This study is motivated by psychological evidence of a strong connection between sporting event outcomes and mood. To evaluate this connection, we analyze the Indian stock market reaction to sudden changes in investors’ mood captured by India’s cricket results. By focusing on a rarely studied mood variable and a very infrequently studied stock exchange, this study adds to our understanding of the association between sporting event outcomes and mood.
Research Objective/Questions: In this study, we investigate the impact of cricket wins and losses on the Bombay Stock Exchange. We hypothesize that cricket wins or losses will drive investors’ mood substantially and unambiguously so that the game outcomes will be powerful enough to impact asset prices. We also evaluate the hypothesis that losses are psychologically more powerful than wins.
Methodology: We analyze the daily data from the Bombay Stock Exchange using the methodology of Edmonds et al. (2007). This methodology has the advantages of capturing the Bombay Stock Exchange stock returns time-varying volatility through a GARCH model.
Major Fundings: Our findings show that cricket wins and losses do not impact the Bombay Stock Exchange. On the exchange, stock prices reflect relevant information. Our results are thus consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Implication(s): Our results imply that on the Bombay Stock Exchange, cricket wins and losses cannot be reliably used by investors and portfolio managers to achieve returns in excess of the average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis.
Keywords: Sentiment, Sports Sentiment, Investor mood, ARCH, GARCH, Bombay Stock Exchange
Internal Control Weakness and Managerial Myopia: Evidence from SOX Section 404 Disclosures
Amy E. Ji
Saint Joseph’s University
Problem/ Relevance: Managerial myopia is an important issue of interests to academics, practitioners, and regulators as managers have been condemned for their obsession with short-term earnings and myopic investment decisions that sacrifice firms’ long-term value for shareholders. This article contributes by examining whether the quality of firms’ internal controls over financial reporting (ICFR) is associated with managerial myopia.
Research Objective/ Questions: The purpose of this study is to examine whether managers in firms reporting material internal control weaknesses (ICW) under Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) of 2002 engage in myopic behaviors more than those in firms without reporting ICW.
Methodology: The study uses the logit regression model to investigate a sample obtained from Compustat for the period of 2005-2013.
Major Findings: The study finds a positive association between internal control weaknesses reported by auditors under Section 404 of the SOX and managerial short-termism which is measured by the probability of cutting R&D expenses in the current year from the previous year.
Implications: Whereas prior studies mostly examine the impact of internal controls on accounting quality, this study demonstrates the implication of internal controls beyond financial reporting quality by showing an association between internal control quality and managerial myopia. Future research may further investigate the association between firms’ financial reporting quality and managerial investment decisions.
Keywords: internal control; internal control over financial reporting; internal control weakness; Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) Section 404; managerial myopia; managerial short-termism
Determinants of the Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Albania: An Estimation Based on the Co-integration Approach
Natasha Ahmetaj, Merita Bejtja
Bank of Albania
Problem/Relevance: Investigation of exchange rate behaviour has been an important topic in international monetary economics because of the impact of exchange rates on economies. One strand of the literature has focused on explaining the observed movement of the nominal or real exchange rate in terms of macroeconomic variables. Another strand of the literature has evaluated the behaviour of the real exchange rates in relation to the equilibrium exchange rate, which is the real exchange rate that is consistent with macroeconomic balances. Albania implements a free floating exchange rate regime; therefore, evaluating whether the actual real exchange rate is too strong or too weak compared with the real equilibrium exchanges rate has great relevance for the Albanian economy.
Research Objective/Questions: Generally, the real exchange rate is defined as the nominal exchange rate adjusted for the relative price differential between domestic and foreign goods and services. So, an appreciation of the nominal exchange rate or higher inflation at home relative to other countries may lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. Such appreciation weakens the competitiveness of a country, widens the current account deficit and increases vulnerability to financial crises. The opposite holds true when the real exchange rate depreciates. The aim of this paper is, first, to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Albanian currency against the euro and, second, to assess the total exchange rate misalignment during the period of 2001Q1-2017Q1. Thus, the equilibrium real exchange rate is used as a benchmark for evaluating the misalignment of the actual real exchange rate.
Methodology: This paper explores the determinants of the real exchange rate for Albania, during the period of 2001Q1-2017Q1, based on the stock-flow approach, the so-called Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER), which effectively employs reduced-form modelling of the exchange rate based on standard co-integration techniques. The stock of net foreign assets and productivity changes has been considered fundamental for the real exchange rate. We have used the Johansen co-integration technique to test the existence of long-run relationships between our main variables and to evaluate the path of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on vector error correction model (VECM) results. Then the analysis is completed by calculating the degree of misalignment as the difference between the actual real exchange rate and the equilibrium real exchange rate.
Major Findings: Based on the Johansen co-integration approach, we find one long-run relationship between the real exchange rate of the Albanian lek against the euro, relative productivity and net foreign assets during the period of 2001Q1 to 2017Q1. The model implies that the real exchange rate is affected, as we expected, by relative productivity and net foreign assets, confirming that an increase in both variables leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate in the long run. Our results show that the behaviour of the actual real exchange rate is similar to the path of the equilibrium exchange rate and that the degree of misalignment throughout the period is estimated to be moderate.
Implications: Our empirical results confirm that the degree of misalignment is reasonable, suggesting a consistency between macroeconomic (especially monetary) policies and the free floating exchange rate regime. Assessing real exchange rate misalignment is a very important issue for policy makers because of the severe welfare and efficiency costs that such misalignment can have for an economy.
Jel Classification: C22, F31, F32
Key words: Equilibrium exchange rate, Co-integration analysis, BEER